Of course, this market has not been smooth sailing. The increase in Japan's real interest rates is also a Damocles sword hanging over the risk market. However, the impact is not yet significant. On Monday, there was a sudden surge in Japan's 10-year interest rates, which broke the historical high of nearly 17 years and continued to rise on Thursday. Now, Japan has already surpassed the historical high of 18 years. Although Japan has not announced an immediate interest rate hike, the increase in real interest rates is equivalent to a substantial interest rate hike. More importantly, as the world's largest low interest financing currency, the change in interest rate structure of the Japanese yen will essentially squeeze all arbitrage spaces built on "borrowing yen and buying high interest assets" in the past decade, from US bonds, US stocks to credit bonds, to BTC and ETH, all of which belong to the same chain of beneficiaries. When the interest rates on the financing side rise while the returns on the asset side do not expand synchronously, the interest rate spread will be compressed, and leverage will become no longer cost-effective. New leverage will not be willing to come in, and the pressure on old leverage to continue will be greater, which is likely to gradually emerge with the rise of interest rates. Of course, we are still in the first stage, where the market realizes that the interest rate differential is shrinking. However, the real pressure point depends on whether Japan's 10-year period can continue to move towards the sensitive range of 1.3% -1.4%, whether the Federal Reserve will provide a continuous interest rate cut path in December, and whether the global front-end financing costs can synchronize. If these three conditions are not met, the rupture of the arbitrage chain will inevitably occur. The current rebound is still more of an emotional repair by the market borrowing from the Federal Reserve's cessation of balance sheet tightening and the expected rebound in interest rate cuts, rather than the successful hedging of Japanese interest rates. The rise in yen interest rates will not change the market in a day, but it will continue to weaken the resilience of the risk market. As long as the Federal Reserve's easing path is not fully determined, this variable will continue to repeatedly affect the market. Speaking of people, it's like someone used to lend you interest free money to invest in US bonds with an annualized return of 4%. Every penny of profit was earned by yourself, but now the person who lent you the money says you have to repay the interest. At the beginning, the interest was only 1%. Although you are unhappy, you still have a 3% return, but this interest will gradually increase. When the interest exceeds 3%, although you are still making money, you will already worry that the interest will continue to rise, causing you to be busy for nothing, so you will choose to buy US bonds and repay the loan. I believe no one will earn a 4% return with an interest rate exceeding 4%. This is the current situation of interest rates in Japan. So this is also the reason why I have always believed that the market is still rebounding. The current rise in the risk market is mainly due to the Federal Reserve ending its balance sheet tightening and injecting a certain amount of liquidity. But if SLR has not been completely cancelled, or even completely eliminated from the risk of economic recession, it is difficult to say that it has entered a reversal cycle at present. However, it can be clearly seen that it is precisely because there have been some expectations and loose windows that institutions and hedge funds have begun to build positions. Bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits