QT ends, encryption collective skyrockets, is this the starting gun of a new cycle, or a rebound in a bear market? On December 1st, the Federal Reserve officially announced the end of quantitative tightening (QT), causing the cryptocurrency market to instantly boil: BTC surged 8% to return to $93000 within the day, ETH stood at $3000, and imitations such as SOL and SUI experienced a wild rebound. But the real question is: Does the end of QT mean a "bull market restart" or "the last breath before QE"? History does not support the optimistic judgment of 'QT=starting point of bull market'. The last time QT ended occurred in August 2019, when Bitcoin also experienced a brief uptrend, rebounding from $9400 to $12000. But a few weeks later, it rapidly declined, dropping to as low as $7800. It was not until the outbreak of the pandemic in March 2020 and the announcement of unlimited QE by the Federal Reserve that Bitcoin truly opened up its upward channel. The script from the previous round was very clear: QT end ≠ bull market start, QE is the decisive turning point. So is today different? Of course, the size is different - the market value of cryptocurrency has increased tenfold compared to 2019; Institutions become the dominant force; Bitcoin's performance is more stable, with its correlation with the US stock market increasing from -0.4 to 0.2 in the past to maintaining a long-term correlation of 0.4 to 0.6 now. But it is precisely this' strong correlation 'that makes encryption more like a high beta of US tech stocks, rather than an independent asset. Before the end of QT in December, the US stock market had already returned to its previous high, while the rebound of cryptocurrency was weak, indicating that liquidity in the stock game is more likely to flow to "more certain" technology stocks rather than higher risk cryptocurrencies. At the same time, the market narrative is also changing. Encryption is no longer the sole focus of capital, AI is becoming the main battlefield for institutional competition, and even top mining companies are turning to AI/HPC business. This means that even if QE is reintroduced in the future, funds may not necessarily prioritize encryption as they did in the past. A more realistic judgment based on historical experience and current environment is: The end of QT is not the starting gun of the crypto bull market, it is more like a warning sound. The real turning point still depends on when QE arrives. Even if QE restarts, we must acknowledge one fact: Nowadays, the larger and less volatile cryptocurrency market finds it difficult to replicate the frenzy of the past 'tenfold market trend'. At this stage, being overly optimistic or overly pessimistic is not appropriate. The market is becoming bigger, harder, and more mature, and we must also be more calm.