星球日报
星球日报|Dec 04, 2025 04:09
[Delphi Digital: Multiple Policies Converge, Market Sees First 'Net Liquidity Positive' Since Early 2022] Odaily Planet Daily News – Crypto market research firm Delphi Digital pointed out that the Federal Reserve's interest rate path for next year is the clearest in recent years: a 25 basis point rate cut is expected by December 2025, bringing the federal funds rate to the 3.5%-3.75% range; forward curves indicate at least three more rate cuts by 2026, with year-end rates likely to fall to around 3%. The research states that, more critically, liquidity has seen three structural improvements simultaneously: quantitative tightening (QT) officially ended on December 1, the Treasury General Account (TGA) is planned to be gradually reduced, and the reverse repurchase program (RRP) has been depleted, creating the first net liquidity positive environment since early 2022. Delphi Digital noted that SOFR and the federal funds rate have fallen to the upper 3% range, and real interest rates have declined from their 2023-2024 highs. This represents a 'controlled slowdown' rather than a sharp easing. They predict that 2026 will be a year when policy shifts from resistance to a mild tailwind, benefiting long-duration assets, large-cap stocks, gold, and digital assets supported by structural demand.
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