Fortunately, the central bank's episode on Monday did not affect last Sunday's macro outlook for December, maintaining the previous judgment that the loose trading driven by the expectation of interest rate cuts starting on November 21 could continue until early ten. And these few events in the past few days actually have an impact on the deduction of the major fluctuations in mid December: 1) Tonight's November adp small non farm payroll is lower than expected, with not only no new employment but also a net unemployment of over 30000, indicating a contraction in employment. The certainty of next week's interest rate cut has increased, and the non farm unemployment data for November is likely to be weak. The ultimate focus is on the inflation data for November. 2) Trump released the next candidate for the chairman of the Federal Reserve earlier than expected and repeatedly hinted at Hassett, apparently to hedge against the possible hawkish remarks of Powell at the next interest rate meeting next week; 3) On Monday, the central bank released strong expectations of interest rate hikes ahead of schedule, which may not necessarily be a bad thing. If there is an orderly withdrawal of funds, it is good. Pay close attention to the trend of the US Japan exchange rate https://(x.com)/qinbank/status/1995698468506259794? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A 4) Another focus is the mid month vote on the subsidy issue of the Affordable Care Act, which is related to whether the government will return to shutdown after January 31 next year. There is currently no latest information, and we will observe for a few more days. It is currently difficult to accurately assess and observe the specific impact for a few days before making a conclusion.