DC大于C
DC大于C|Dec 02, 2025 04:32
Watching the market go up and thinking it'll keep rising, or watching it drop and thinking it'll keep falling, isn't the right approach. Yesterday, I mentioned that the 845-87 range could hold steady, and after a day, it's still fluctuating within this range. The rate hike by the Bank of Japan has had some impact, but not as much as expected—this provides a significant buffer period, doesn't it? Just now, Powell gave a speech at Stanford University, but his prepared remarks didn't comment on the economy or monetary policy. A quiet session, and now we wait for Bowman’s speech tonight at 11 PM. Earlier, the Fed's unofficial spokesperson Nick wrote an article: "Why might Kevin Hassett already be the frontrunner for Fed Chair before the race officially ends? Several final candidates are scheduled to begin interviews at the White House this week. But Trump has repeatedly hinted that this formal process might not matter." Does this mean that even if Powell delivers a hawkish rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, the market will start paying attention to the new chair's remarks? Until next May, the power struggle between the 'current emperor' and the 'crown prince' seems inevitable, right? For now, I still think we're seeing more low-level consolidation. In this kind of low-level recovery trend, a second or even third dip to test the bottom is completely normal. Earlier this year, in February and March, prices dropped to 74, but tariffs ended up being lower than expected, and the U.S.-China relations improved, leading to a rebound. Now, people think breaking below 8 means accelerated decline and a deep bear market is coming. But what’s the bearish expectation here? Is it just the 4-year halving cycle?
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