Sina 🗝️⚡ BI Report|12月 01, 2025 13:29
New BIR piece published: Does this bounce carry structural significance?
In our last report, we highlighted that Bitcoin was hovering at the edge of its structural support zone, with the True Market Mean ($82k) acting as the final threshold before a deeper bear phase. Loss realization among top buyers had risen to levels not seen since 2022, long-term holder stress was building, and the market remained vulnerable. Put simply, demand needed to re-emerge; otherwise, the market would struggle to break back above the short-term holder cost basis, now around $104.2k.
Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin retested the low band near $82k, and the True Market Mean successfully acted as support. Price has since rebounded toward $91k, offering the first indications of stabilization.
In this edition, we assess whether this bounce carries structural significance and why the current market profile increasingly mirrors Q1 2022. A period characterized by weak demand, elevated top-buyer losses, and a slow, grinding attempt to rebuild market stability.
https://bitcoinintelligence.substack.com/p/bearish-deja-vu(Sina 🗝️⚡ BI Report)
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