This morning, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that "if the economic outlook is realized, we will raise interest rates and hope to raise them to 0.75%. We are watching. How to view the statement made by Ueda and the man and the impact it has on concerns about the ebb of carry trades: 1) This morning, Ueda and the man's speech had a more emotional impact on the market than the actual ebb of carry trades. In fact, it can be seen from the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Japanese yen that the US Japan exchange rate was still rising last week. If funds were to withdraw from the US dollar and return to the Japanese yen on a large scale, it should be seen that the US dollar and Japanese yen exchange rates would decline. However, in fact, the significant decline in the US Japan exchange rate occurred this morning. So today's impact is more of an emotional impact 2) Two weeks ago, we talked about the trend of the US Japan exchange rate before the market crash on August 5th last year. From July 11th to July 20th last year, the US Japan exchange rate fell from 161 to 150, and then fell again to 141 in the first week of August. It can also be understood that if the tide of carry trades really falls, there will definitely be a large amount of funds withdrawing from the US market, exchanging US dollars for Japanese yen and then withdrawing back into Japan. The process of the sharp decline in the US Japan exchange rate in July last year was the process of the withdrawal of carry trade funds, which then triggered a major shock in early August. Afterwards, pay attention to whether the ebb of the carry trade has really occurred and whether the US Japan exchange rate has dropped significantly in a short period of time, falling below 150. If there is indeed a significant withdrawal of funds from the United States, then caution should be exercised. 3) Last week, the Bank of Japan stated that it is concerned about the trend of the US Japan exchange rate and will intervene in the exchange rate if the yen continues to weaken. Today, Ueda and the man's statement seems more like a test of the market or expectation management, as they can pull up the exchange rate without using their hands or mouths. 4) It still depends on the response of the Japanese government, especially Takashi Hayao, to the statement made by the Bank of Japan. After all, Takashi Hayao has just proposed a fiscal stimulus plan of over 20 trillion yen, and raising interest rates at this time is actually not conducive to fiscal stimulus policies. If the high market opposes interest rate hikes, the Bank of Japan is likely to consider more; If tacitly approved, then the Bank of Japan will have fewer constraints. 5) There are two prerequisites for the ebb of the carry trade: first, the increase in the Japanese yen's interest rate raises the cost side, and second, the emergence of significant risks and compression of returns in US assets (last year, there was also a strong expectation of recession caused by non farm sectors falling significantly short of expectations). Only when both factors work together can they trigger a major impact. This article is sponsored by the meme trading tool http://(xxyy. io) | Fast trading, versatile features, and can be used to monitor on chain wallets @useXXYYio