Phyrex
Phyrex|Dec 01, 2025 00:33
Just saw the data from CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange) on CPC (Total Put/Call Ratio). Looking at the CPC trend, as of November 28, 2025, CPC has dropped to 0.70, right at the red dashed line in the chart. Over the past three years, every time this line was touched, it almost always indicated that the market had entered a zone of 'extreme optimism or greed.' A high CPC ratio (>1.0) indicates panic and crowded hedging, often closer to a bottom. A low ratio (<0.7–0.8) means bullish trades significantly outnumber bearish ones, showing that investors are overwhelmingly bullish, and the market is more likely to prematurely price in upside potential. Now that it’s at 0.70, it means the market is clearly bullish. However, CPC has already reached a historically low range, suggesting that sentiment hasn’t gradually recovered but has been rapidly pulled into a short-term extreme. It’s shifted directly from caution to chasing gains. From a macro perspective, this could be interpreted as the market preemptively betting on a dovish outcome from the Fed in December, including rate cuts and a dot plot adjustment, which has led to a sharp increase in demand for call options. CPC being in this range doesn’t mean the market will immediately peak, but it does indicate a rise in short-term volatility risk. The core risk of CPC dropping to 0.70 is that buyers have already priced in optimistic expectations in advance. The market has already baked the Fed’s favorable expectations into asset prices. Since the bullish sentiment has been heavily consumed by a large volume of call option trades, if the December Fed meeting results fail to meet or slightly fall short of the extremely high expectations implied by the 0.70 ratio, the market will be highly prone to sharp corrections or fluctuations. Bitget VIP, lower fees, bigger perks.
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