Phyrex|11月 30, 2025 21:44
The weekend really passed by just like that. Starting next week, there will be some key data to watch out for. First up is Wednesday night’s ADP employment data, also known as the mini non-farm payrolls. Since the non-farm payroll data is absent, the ADP data becomes pretty important. The lower this data is, the more it favors a Fed rate cut, but it also indicates poor economic conditions—a classic case of finding a silver lining in bad news.
On Thursday night, we have the Challenger job cuts report. ADP reflects employment, while Challenger reflects unemployment. The higher the number of layoffs, the more it supports a Fed rate cut, but again, it also shows the economy isn’t doing well—another silver lining in bad news. As for Friday night’s September PCE data, to be honest, it’s not very useful since it’s too early, but if it shows a decline, that’s still a good thing.
Of course, next week also brings PMI data, and Powell will be speaking at an event. But I don’t think it’s a big deal. PMI isn’t the focus right now, and since the Fed is in its blackout period, Powell won’t be discussing monetary policy.
Looking at Bitcoin’s data, today’s turnover rate actually continued to rise, but there hasn’t been much change in the data for transfers in and out of exchanges. It’s very likely just internal adjustments within the exchanges. Also, from the URPD structure, it’s clear that only the $90,000 price point saw some movement, while turnover rates at other levels remain low.
Overall, the current token structure still looks pretty healthy. Investor clustering is also very evident. Whether it’s loss-making investors or those who profited around $80,000, there’s no sign of significant exits. Investor sentiment remains quite stable.
The next key event will be the Fed’s December FOMC meeting.
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