[Goldman Sachs: December Rate Cut by the Federal Reserve is a Foregone Conclusion] According to a report by Jinse Finance, Goldman Sachs stated that the Federal Reserve is almost certain to lower interest rates during its December 9–10 policy meeting. The market is currently pricing in an 85%–86% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. Goldman Sachs' fixed income team pointed out that a weakening labor market and the need for policy risk management are key factors prompting the Federal Reserve to pivot earlier than expected. With no significant data anticipated to alter this direction, this rate cut is almost guaranteed. Although the 119,000 new jobs added in September exceeded market expectations, signs of weakness in the labor market are becoming increasingly evident: the unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021, and the unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20 to 24 has reached 8.5%. Goldman Sachs analysts Rikin Shah and Cosimo Codacci-Pisanelli wrote in their report that this group accounts for 55% to 60% of U.S. labor income, and their employment pressures have a significant impact on the overall economy. Indicators such as WARN notices for corporate layoffs, Challenger layoff reports, and the frequency of layoff mentions in third-quarter earnings calls all reflect a slowdown in labor demand. On November 21, New York Fed President John Williams stated that there is "room for further adjustments" in the short term regarding policy stance, almost confirming the direction of this meeting. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly subsequently expressed support for a rate cut on November 24, stating that the labor market is "sufficiently fragile" and that over-tightening could pose risks of nonlinear changes. Goldman Sachs predicts that the federal funds rate will drop to 3%–3.25% by mid-2026 and expects further small rate cuts in March and June next year. Additionally, Goldman Sachs recommends shorting U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds as a primary trading strategy in the first quarter of 2026, as fiscal stimulus is expected to drive growth. The Goldman Sachs team concluded that, in the context of a data vacuum and high market consensus, this rate cut has essentially been "locked in" ahead of time.