
DC大于C|Nov 30, 2025 14:12
Tomorrow, December 1st, QT stops. This is a milestone event for liquidity improvement since early 2022. Simply put, before, we were draining water from this 'pool,' but now we’re stopping.
Although we don’t know when water will be added back to this 'pool,' the sentiment boost is definitely helpful.
At the time of posting, BTC is above 91,000. This month has been relatively stable, and it hasn’t dropped below the 80k range.
As I mentioned in this post https://(x.com)/DL_W59/status/1993890880730886420?s=20, we’re getting closer to the FOMC meeting (December 11th), and volatility is increasing. Here’s a screenshot of the info from that post:
At the time of posting, the CME rate cut probability is 86.4%. This week, we’ll hear speeches from Fed officials Powell and Bowman, along with the ADP employment data and September’s PCE release.
If Powell’s speech remains hawkish and he doesn’t soften his stance, it could hurt the rate cut probability, and the market might not look great. On the flip side, if the rate cut probability approaches 99.9%, then the market could continue to rise.
In other words, the most critical period of the game is here. Volatility and fluctuations will increase.
The breakout levels to the upside are 94k and the psychological 100k mark. Support levels below are 90.4k, and then 87k.
Although market expectations—and my personal hope—are that Powell softens his stance, making a December rate cut almost certain (close to 99%), which would lead to a market rebound, let’s just wait and see. Let’s watch Powell’s performance.