In 2026, there should be both risks and opportunities. Personally, I estimate that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut plan in 2026 will increase from one in the September dot matrix to at least three, with one in the first quarter. Faced with such a high number of layoffs in the United States, even Powell may show signs of dovishness. In particular, the tariff rate of Trump in 2026 will be rejected. (As of 2025, nearly 1.1 million people have been laid off, an increase of 65% compared to 2025 and four times that of the same period in 2024) After May 2026, the new chairman of the Federal Reserve will be in place, and the market has expectations for a high-speed interest rate cut in the future. It is estimated that there may be more than four opportunities for interest rate cuts by the dot matrix in June. Mainly for the midterm elections in November. I have written about the analysis before and after the midterm elections many times. Interested friends can take a look at what I wrote in 2022. At that time, the key dates were already marked according to history in August, and the results were consistent. This trend has not gone wrong in the United States for nearly 60 years. Address: https://(x.com)/Phyrex_Ni/status/1564477261050392576? s=20 Of course, this does not necessarily mean that 2026 will be good. Currently, the biggest pitfall in the United States may be the possibility of an economic recession under high interest rates. That is why I have repeatedly emphasized that friends do not need to understand any macro content, just look at the unemployment rate. If the unemployment rate exceeds 5.3% (the average initial value of recent economic recessions), the probability of an economic recession will be very high. Trump Council will delay the possibility of economic recession at all costs, but it does not mean that it will never happen. The mid-term elections are very important for Trump and the Republican Party. First, the Senate is the key point in the key point. All cabinet ministers, members of the Federal Reserve, chairman of the SEC, chairman of the CFTC, attorney general, and the Supreme Court justices are appointed by the Senate. The Senate can also decide whether to recall the President. Of course, the House of Representatives is also very important. Trump's first term is because he lost the House of Representatives during the mid-term elections, which blocked subsequent legislative proposals. So what Trump can do to win the Senate and the House of Representatives is to seize the emotional thread of the national voters. Economy, immigration, diplomacy, trade and culture are the key points. Once the economy declines, the ruling party will almost inevitably lose in the mid-term elections. So Trump does not dare to let the economy decline in 2026. Even if there is any sign, it will at least delay until after the mid-term elections. Therefore, we can see that Trump's recent speeches frequently involve the economy, immigration, diplomacy and trade, and the economy will not be mentioned. Migrants have started targeting Afghan refugees again. Diplomacy and trade have been tied together, with the return of manufacturing industry, which is essentially for the mid-term elections and the general election in 2028. As the saying goes, if the US stock market is good, Bitcoin will not be too bad. If technology stocks can continue to rise, BTC is likely to follow, even if the magnitude is small. Bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits