PANews
PANews|11月 28, 2025 02:46
[Arthur Hayes: Price Discovery for Major U.S. Tech Stocks and Key Indices Expected to Occur in the Perpetual Contract Market] BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published an article today titled 'Survival of the Fittest: How Perpetual Contracts Are Disrupting Traditional Finance,' pointing out that traditional finance (TradFi) is desperately trying to maintain its dominance in stock trading. Observing how they respond to the rapid market acceptance of index perpetual contracts will be very interesting. The first market to dominate the perpetual contract space will be offshore trading of U.S. stock price risk. U.S. stocks, and eventually all stocks, will be tokenized. However, index perpetual contracts do not rely on stock tokenization to succeed. Stock perpetual contracts already have a mature infrastructure that can scale quickly. Currently, daily trading volume for index perpetual contracts exceeds $100 million. As traders and market makers become familiar with contract specifications, trading volume will soon reach tens of billions of dollars daily. Considering the frequent global announcements that occur after TradFi markets close on Fridays, index perpetual contracts will become a tool for institutional and retail traders to hedge risks over the weekend. This will force major U.S. securities trading platforms to implement 24/7 trading faster than originally planned. Hayes predicts that by the end of 2026, price discovery for major U.S. tech stocks and key indices (such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100) will occur in retail-facing perpetual contract markets. When financial media display S&P 500 perpetual contract quotes as the best pricing source instead of CME's Globex version, the market landscape will undergo a significant shift. Additionally, he stated that the next wave of billionaire cryptocurrency exchange founders will emerge from the intersection of perpetual contracts and stocks.
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