
ๆ็ๆฅๆฅ|11ๆ 27, 2025 00:08
Opinion: Gold price approaches $5000 by 2026, and will break through historic levels again in 2027
Odaily Planet Daily News: Deutsche Bank predicts that gold prices may approach $5000 per ounce in 2026 and break through this critical psychological barrier in 2027. Michael Hsueh, an analyst at the bank, pointed out that after the market clears its positions, the demand for gold purchases from central banks around the world will continue to exist, and coupled with the re-entry of exchange traded funds (ETFs), it is expected that gold prices will climb to a high of $4950 per ounce in 2026. In the report released on Wednesday, Michael has raised his forecast for the average gold price next year from $4000 per ounce to $4450 per ounce. For 2027, he set an expected target of $5150 per ounce. Although the gold price fell by about 10% from its peak in October, it has now regained half of its lost ground. This analyst observed that 'gold is breaking historical patterns' - the price volatility in 2025 is at its highest level since 1980. At that time, the market's continued concerns about inflation, fiat currency depreciation, and the global debt spiral drove gold prices to record highs repeatedly. He emphasized that the outstanding performance of gold prices in this round is not solely due to the depreciation of the US dollar, making it even more rare. Michael expects that the "official" and "rigid" demand from global central banks will continue to push up gold prices in 2026. In the third quarter, the central bank's gold purchases reached 220 tons, setting a record for the third highest level on record. Despite the high level of gold prices, they still significantly surpassed the second quarter data. He cited the viewpoint of a central bank manager, stating that gold is the ultimate safeguard against the tail end risks of black swans. After four consecutive years of capital outflows, gold ETFs will return to a net inflow state in 2025. Michael judged from the weak daily fluctuations in net buying and selling that the recent wave of profit taking may have subsided. He believes that the support level of $3900 per ounce will remain stable. Michael observed that there is a certain causal law in the flow of funds in gold ETFs (the price direction determines the inflow and outflow of funds), and pointed out that the beginning of the year is usually the most active seasonal period for gold performance. Looking back at data from the past 20 and 30 years, gold generally showed positive monthly growth in January and February. Finally, based on the data from the first nine months, Michael estimates that the annual mineral gold production in 2025 will reach 3693 tons, which is extremely limited in response to high prices. The expected supply for next year in his model is 3715 tons, which means that demand is likely to continue to outperform supply. (Golden Ten)