Initial jobless claims have decreased. It seems like the job market is recovering well, which lowers the probability of rate cuts, and U.S. stocks also pulled back slightly during the session. But actually, that's not the case. 1. The rebound effect after the government shutdown: In mid-November, the U.S. just ended a government shutdown that lasted over 40 days. The backlog of data processing and federal employee filing procedures might cause short-term fluctuations or delays in statistical 'catch-up,' making the initial claims number appear lower than it actually is. 2. Seasonal adjustments: In the weeks leading up to Thanksgiving, seasonal adjustment factors tend to fluctuate significantly, which could artificially suppress the revised numbers. This data only shows that the job market hasn’t collapsed. It doesn’t support a significant rate cut by the Fed (50bp), but it also doesn’t mean the job market is problem-free. A 25bp cut still aligns with market expectations.