10x Research: Federal Reserve Policy Statement May Become Key Variable

10x Research pointed out in an article on X platform that Bitcoin is currently at the intersection of Federal Reserve policies, US dollar trends, and complex liquidity narratives. Although the probability of a rate cut in December has risen to 84%, historical experience shows that the key lies in policy statements rather than the rate cut itself. A rare triggered US dollar indicator has just lit up, marking the fifth time in Bitcoin's history that past results have not been optimistic. The Treasury Department's cash account (TGA) may release over $600 billion in liquidity, but similar situations have been accompanied by a significant decline in Bitcoin. The implied probability of interest rate reduction in treasury bond bond futures market in December is 84%, and the probability of keeping interest rate unchanged in January is 65%. 10x Research emphasizes that if the third consecutive interest rate cut is not accompanied by dovish forward guidance, the boosting effect of risk assets may be limited.