TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|11月 26, 2025 02:37
NVIDIA and Google, one up, one down, a game of give and take, rising and falling. Google not only launched the super-powerful Gemini3 but also boasts its own advanced self-developed TPUs. Essentially, Google alone can form a closed loop, significantly reducing its dependency on NVIDIA chips. This could even extend to other major players like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, who might strengthen their self-developed chip efforts in the future, breaking NVIDIA's narrative of uniqueness. Moreover, if model efficiency improves, hardware demand could actually drop in the short term. Tasks that previously required 10,000 cards might now only need 8,000, further hitting the sales narrative. This is very similar to the logic behind the emergence of Deepseek earlier this year, which impacted NVIDIA's stock price. At its core, it's the diminishing marginal utility of brute-force computing. If NVIDIA shifts back from SaaS-style pricing to traditional manufacturing pricing in the future, its PE ratio might take a hit. How will Jensen Huang respond? Sovereign AI computing centers? Launching new technologies to create generational gaps? Opening up the next compute-heavy track (but how to address the power shortage)? Further refining the software-hardware ecosystem to deepen its moat?
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