What do you think of the December interest rate meeting when the October PCE data was also postponed this week? The original plan was to release the October PCE data this week, which is the most important inflation data before the December interest rate meeting. Now that this data has been postponed, it is highly likely that there is still a statistical missing issue. The expectation of not cutting interest rates last Friday night was shattered by New York Fed President Williams, who had discussed being the third in command of the Fed and the weight of his speech was not comparable to that of ordinary Fed members. On the same day, Jefferson, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, also said that the current development of AI was very different from that of the Internet foam, and it was unlikely to witness a repeat of the late 1990s. When the second and third leaders of the Federal Reserve came out to directly respond to the market's concern about whether AI is a foam and whether interest rates will be cut in December, you know that this is probably what Powell meant. Powell, Jefferson, and Williams can be referred to as the three executive directors of the Federal Reserve, the three core powers of the Fed. Their communication is usually very frequent and close, and two of them speak publicly, basically representing the opinion of the other one. On the surface, the Federal Reserve's FOMC is judged based on the number of votes, but in reality, the Fed chairman has great autonomy in agenda arrangement, discussion process, and individual communication. From this perspective, the probability of further interest rate cuts in December is already high, and it can even be said to be very clear. I don't actually pay attention to the speeches of other directors or local Fed chairpersons because they find it difficult to influence the overall situation. Of course, the speeches by Waller last night and Daley this morning in support of the December interest rate cut are also icing on the cake. Last Friday's statements by Williams and Jefferson were the timely help and a reversal of expectations. Last week, it was mentioned that Friday night may be a turning point for the market in the short term, and now it seems that this turning point can continue. It is very likely that the market will continue to cut interest rates until early December. A deduction for the December interest rate meeting: 1. There is a high probability of a rate cut, and Powell is able to partially handle the opposition from the vote committee. The voting results show support for the rate cut, but there may be more opposition than in October. In this situation, it is difficult to expect Powell to make a dovish statement at the press conference afterwards. Last week we talked here about https://(x.com)/qinba frank/status/1991497152426889252? There are only two possible outcomes for the December interest rate meeting: hawkish interest rate cuts and dovish interest rate cuts. The probability of hawkish interest rate cuts is now higher, and of course, Powell's speech is expected to be slightly tough, making it difficult to have a hawkish tone. 2. Then there is the dot matrix diagram, which showed at the September interest rate meeting that there is only one decline in 26 years. So look at the new dot matrix chart of the December interest rate meeting, which indicates the number of times interest rates will be lowered next year. If the frequency is above 2, it is also a good thing for the market (which can hedge against Powell's slightly tough speech). 3. Next is the pace of future bond purchases to expand the balance sheet. Will it be proposed in December. Have you talked about https://(x.com)/qinba frank/status/1991005823351611431? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A 4. The November data (non farm payroll and inflation data) released after the interest rate meeting can allow the market to judge the pace of the Federal Reserve's future. A slight increase in unemployment rate, continued weakness in new employment, and lower than expected inflation are the best scenarios for the market, while other scenarios are considered bad data for the market. 5. Of course, in the future, the new candidate for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman should be determined. People may be more concerned about how the new chairman looks and says. This article is sponsored by the meme trading tool http://(xxyy. io) | Fast trading, versatile features, and can be used to monitor on chain wallets @useXXYYio