People always ignore more important signals because of too much noise. This time, it took about 24 days for BTC to go from 110k+ / ETH 4100 to 84k / 2700, and two major signals were overlooked. First, think about the source of this bull market. Unlike previous bull markets driven by leverage, this one is fundamentally different in its driving force. It’s a bull market led by asset allocation from DAT and TradFi’s entry through tools like ETFs. The biggest impact of this shift is that the pricing power of crypto assets has largely moved outside the crypto circle. Therefore, the 1011 liquidation mainly dealt a heavy blow to altcoins within the circle, but had a weaker impact on BTC / ETH. The major drop happened after 1011, with even mainstream coins trading far below the wick price of that day. Those massive signals from outside the circle, which truly touch the fundamental driving force of this rally, were severely underestimated by the market and deserve continued attention: That is the sell signals from IBIT and DAT. IBIT’s first major sell-off happened on Oct 20, and DAT’s first ETH sell-off was on Oct 28. Yet, a month ago, while we were all watching the big bets from gamblers on Hyperliquid (the so-called insider bros), few people were warning about the risk of external funds dumping in the midst of all the noise. First principles: the flow of funds and the supply-demand relationship. Let’s review these more fundamental logics to have a clearer thought process for the next time we make judgments. Special thanks to @0xEdwin999 for helping with some data collection and analysis. More updates coming ✍️