"The macro backdrop is extremely bullish" I've been hearing this in spaces and whatnot and it's often a combo of Trump diluting the Fed, stimmy checks, QT ending, Fed balance sheet expansion, and rate easing. Usually accompanied by "they have to print" or "liquidity is coming". Consider: Fed has been in easing mode since Sept 2024. It's not an accelerating trend. Market has repeatedly over priced too many cuts throughout the cycle and had to back off each time. Fed is ending QT soon but this QT had no impact on risk taking at any point so the end of QT will logically also have low impact. Fed balance sheet will expand within a year but they'll be buying a small amount of TBills and it won't be remotely the same impulse on risk taking as proper QE. It will just be the delta between interest on reserves and nominal GDP growth. The narrative exceeds the mechanics. Trump wants a Fed stooge to replace Powell in Q2 2026 but the FOMC is a committee vote so no matter who he installs they will still need to agree on policy as a group, limiting his direct influence. Stimmy checks require an act of Congress, would not represent ex nihilo money creation as they are re-routed taxes, and would only go to low income earners. It's also less than a year to mid terms. Those same low income earners are now four years deep into an inflationary impulse, have the worst job prospects of any expansion in U.S. history, have all time low sentiment, and wage growth has been steadily tapering for years. They're tapped out. Household borrowing remains well below average and trillions worth of home equity remains unreachable due to sticky interest rates. The refinance channel, which is so often a useful tool for increasing household demand, is clogged in a historic fashion with no proper relief in sight. We have just passed the peak of a multi year liquidity cycle upswing that began in October 2022 and will likely see those factors recede into next year. Michael Howell has spoken at length about this in recent interviews. There is a lag component but the broad direction of travel is the wrong way. Politicians will begin positioning themselves to win mid terms next fall and that probably means less cohesive actions taken by Congress, which implies fading stimmy check talks until evidence proves otherwise. The Trump family may try to pump crypto with rhetoric, but they've already lost their ability to move the market with words the same way they could a year ago when hope and hype were sky high. The mask is off. I'm far from an expert on the AI Capex climate, but it feels like it's getting very frothy and incestuous. Not sure how that plays in, but it seems a little dicey and it's contributing a huge amount to GDP currently. I don't have a strong view about the next 12 months but I do think it's bound to be a challenging environment when I consider all these factors together. In no way does it resemble an obviously bullish set up. Happy to hear about anything I may have failed to consider.(𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂)