The market is in chaos over whether there will be a rate cut in December. Collins and Logan's speeches advocated maintaining restrictive policies and keeping rates unchanged, arguing that stronger evidence is needed to prove inflation will consistently fall back to the 2% target. Market shock. Williams stated that monetary policy is currently at a 'moderately restrictive level' and that there is still room for 'further adjustments to the federal funds rate target range in the near term' to bring the policy stance closer to neutral. This statement has increased market expectations for a December rate cut. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December has risen to 69.4%... but with the Fear and Greed Index at 10, it might be a good time to start building positions in batches.