Some strangers on X are very upset with me because I bull-posted in the last month and then I dared to say I sold. So I want to say a few things for perspective, as well as provide an update on market views. I use this account for entertainment and for sharing macro thoughts, bigger picture views, and my thought process. This account is not a paid service. I do not share trades. Sharing trades on X is unfeasible, particularly so for people like myself who trade the tape daily, without knowing for how long entries will last. For many traders trading is not a matter of "entry/target/stop and wait". The process is dynamic. I would need to keep an active Telegram channel or large room for sharing trades. I did sell, multiple times. I've had a large core BTC position since right after Liberation Day in April, and when the market is collapsing against me or I have too much money on the line, I sell/short/buy puts. Risk management. I can decide to trade and execute in seconds when abnormal volume or news surface. Keeps me safe. The post I'm quoting (below) contains a set of macro catalysts I shared earlier this month and it has been spot on. Nailed the shutdown, missed the BTC selling level by an inch (107.5 top vs 108-109 selling area), nailed the Fed's stance (which was non consensus at the time, and flipped today on Williams), and will likely nail most of the rest (maybe not the tariffs part, that's a coin toss). Bitcoin dropped much more than I anticipated. I thought we would see a replay of May 2021 (given the sudden OI wipeout), and 98k max; we replayed May 2022 instead. I don’t have a crystal ball and I never claimed to. I would have loved to help readers more effectively in the last month. I help often and for free, as evidenced by the thousands of exchanges I have with strangers asking for help and information on my replies and DMs. My view has been for half a year the big BTC uptrend would happen in 2026 not in 2025, and I did talk about a major DATs driven top happening in November, as well as the market needing two months to recover from 10/10. That view is based on the expectation of the Fed going considerably incrementally dovish in 2026, a much larger fiscal impulse in Q1 and Q2 from Trump's fiscal package, and continued AI capex growth. I've been bullish macro post December FOMC and bullish BTC after December. That view has kept me longer than ideal on the way down. It's been expensive. I'm down 20%-25% from ATHs on the crypto side of things (much less in equities). Painful. I'm still up more Xs since 2023 than I have fingers, and whoever has decided to follow me all along has done very well. Making mistakes is part of the game. What matters is how we handle the mistakes, to survive, and to relentlessly stand up and keep on going. Positioning wise, I'm now very long BTC low 80s from today, although not fully positioned and I'm not planning to hold all of those entries for long. I also bought a lot of calls overnight. This I will hold. If price keeps on tanking I'll be buying December and January calls (more interest in January). Betting on going back above 93-94 by end of December (crash too extreme) and to the 50 WMA by end of January (~25 deltas). For BTC in particular, from a bigger picture TA standpoint the areas to bid are here (multiple fibs and a major trendline here) and 68-75 (wide area!). Levels to the upside are 88, 93-94, 98 and 102-103~50WMA (bullish above, bearish below), with the latter being the new bull-bear pivot. I think re-testing 98 to the 50WMA are high odds, and we'll see what happens after. Also think it's now fair to say 10/10 was more akin to the Luna crash, and today may have represented the 3AC crash. We can be certain many market participants just died. Good luck everyone!(Alex Krüger)