Williams's speech this morning dramatically changed the outlook for the December 10 FOMC meeting. --- We have been arguing that the FOMC Voters view their role as changing and strongly signal that they will vote independently, not fall into line with the Chairman's wishes. This is a positive development. So, Fed watching is now akin to whip counting, or tallying up the Voters' public comments to see which view has a majority (7) votes. The current tally looks like this: * 5 Voters have strongly signaled they do not want to cut rates next month (Barr, Musalem, Schmid, Goolsbee, Collins) * 5 Voters signaled they want to cut rates (Miran, Waller, Bowman, Williams, Cook) * 2 Voters are unknown (Powell and Jefferson) If the Fed is truly becoming independent, then it should be a 7-5 vote ... either way. If the Voters cave and revert to history, voting 11-1 or 10-2 (without a stock market crash changing the equation), the FOMC members who are not the Fed chairman will wreck their reputations.(Jim Bianco)