Lao Bai|Nov 21, 2025 13:11
Totally agree. Had a chat with a domestic institution today, and they asked me what I thought about the current primary market. I shared a perspective similar to @YettaSing.
Even though the market is terrible, the clarity of entrepreneurial ideas and directions is the best it’s ever been. The past two cycles have validated a few tracks and disproved many others. Now, there are two main approaches:
1. Old direction - Issuance and trading of native crypto assets (on-chain casinos - Infra, DeFi, Meme, and now prediction markets have joined the mix).
2. New direction - The “cost reduction and efficiency improvement” for the real world that I’ve been repeatedly mentioning in my recent Tweets, including stablecoins, payments, on-chain stocks/equity/bonds represented by RWA, Agent Economy... Prediction markets also count because, aside from their gambling nature, they have two major functions: “truth machines” and “knowledge monetization.” So prediction markets actually span both the old and new directions, which is why you often hear people say, 'We are not bullish enough on prediction markets.'
Entrepreneurs can choose to strengthen direction 1, which leans toward a red ocean, or explore direction 2, which leans toward a blue ocean. High-quality founders and teams can definitely still secure VC funding, survive, and achieve great things. Top-tier VCs will continue to exist and drive the industry forward.
As for us retail investors, the biggest problem right now is that our wallets have taken a huge hit, and we’re struggling to survive .
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