TraderS | 缺德道人|Nov 21, 2025 04:38
The biggest damage to the market yesterday was not the continued decline of the cryptocurrency circle to a new low, but rather the fake action of the US stock market opening high and falling low, which is a typical Bull Trap. This completely dispelled the last glimmer of illusion in the market. As the saying goes, 'no breaking, no standing.' Since that's the case, it's really a good thing. Instead of grinding and taking two steps forward and three steps back, it's better to go all at once. The sentiment in the cryptocurrency industry has always been to fast in and out and hit a straight ball, and when it rises, it often refuses to retrace and never returns. When it falls, it naturally follows the same logic and does not rebound in one step. It's really a leading indicator for the US stock market.
Once it has fallen to its current state, recognize the reality and stop trying to buy from the left side. It really takes emotions to be released first, and then liquidity will shift from contraction to expansion. At present, the sentiment in the cryptocurrency industry has just shown signs of bottoming out. Only when the big pie no longer falls sharply and the US stock market falls completely, can the big pie lead the rebound of US dollar capital as a pioneer.
At present, the probability of CME cutting interest rates in December has once again decreased from 41.6% to 35.5%. This psychological adjustment of expectations is probably the real reason for today's decline.
The follow-up trading plan should be as follows:
The first stage (now): the currency circle continues to dip, and the US stock market begins to cover the decline (to remove the foam).
The second stage (bottoming out): The cryptocurrency market takes the lead in stopping the decline and enters a stagnant sideways period (liquidity is depleted, but selling pressure is also depleted). The US stock market may still be oscillating in search of support.
Phase Three (Reversal): Macro data finally shows a turning point (such as the rise in unemployment rate forcing the Federal Reserve to soften its stance), and the big cake will rebound 1-2 weeks earlier than the US stock market due to its light plate and sensitivity to liquidity.
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