Will there be a sharp rise or fall at the end of the year? Interpretation of HSBC Max Kettner's Perspective Some of my friends may think that I am being too brainless in this article. First, let me explain that this is an article I have read, and then provide an explanation. It does not represent my personal opinion, although I think he is quite right and his ideas are similar to mine. (It's a bit shameless) First of all, let me introduce that the author of this article is Max Kettner, Chief Multi Asset Strategist at HSBC, who has predicted the ups and downs of most markets in the past few years. (Not 100% accurate) Then there is his conclusion, Max believes that by the end of this year, the biggest risk facing the market is not a melt down, but a 'melt up'. Everyone knows what a collapse means. Let me briefly introduce what a "financial rise" is. Financial rise refers to a sharp and rapid increase in asset prices in a short period of time. But this is usually not driven by improvements in economic fundamentals, but by investors' fear of missing out (FOMO), short squeeze, and sudden influx of large amounts of over-the-counter funds. Next is my interpretation of his article, starting with the main text. The main narrative of this article revolves around the fact that "due to people having too much cash and being too cautious, the market will instead skyrocket because it has no chance of falling". From this perspective, there are currently many bearish voices in the market, but these bearish sentiments do not stem from actual bearish information, and Max does not believe that the fundamentals are bad, that AI will not lead to mass unemployment, and that companies' willingness to spend capital appears low. His understanding of funds is that investors are afraid, so they withdraw their money from the stock market and hold US dollar cash (due to the rise in DXY) or money market funds (due to the decline in US bond yields). On the contrary, this is a 'reverse buying signal'. Because once the stock market rebounds, these huge amounts of off exchange cash will be forced to chase high and buy (FOMO) out of fear of falling short, thereby driving the stock market to soar. And it is believed that the market is not in the frenzy stage of "nationwide stock trading", and the positions are not very full. This indicates that there are still many people (or institutions) who have not bought enough, and there is still room to increase inventory. (Explained why institutions are building warehouses) The viewpoints include: 1. The investment intention of enterprises is not high, which indicates that there is no foam of over investment. There is less discussion about layoffs in the financial report conference. Currently, there is no strong evidence to suggest that AI is causing mass unemployment. The above three points indicate that the US economy is still in a safe zone. Since there are no large-scale layoffs, there is no recession. The sell-off is only due to panic, rather than any further negative effects, such as a recession. At present, the cash size in US money market funds is at a historical high (approximately 6-7 trillion US dollars). This indicates that everyone is very afraid and has withdrawn their money from the stock market (cryptocurrency market) to save interest. But Max believes that since everyone's hands are all cash, it means the potential buying potential is huge. Once the stock market rebounds slightly, these safe haven funds will flood back into the stock market out of fear of falling short, pushing the stock price to the sky. My idea here is that if the Federal Reserve chooses to cut interest rates in December, this portion of cash may enter the market. Of course, in addition to the interest rate cut in December, some of Trump's practices may also drive market sentiment. Even if the court sentenced Trump to illegal tariffs and cancelled them, it would also be good for the risk market. Overall, Max believes that the recent sharp decline is a wash up. Due to investors' panic (VIX skyrocketing, buying money market funds), the market was actually washed clean, freeing up space for the year-end financial rally. Max doesn't value macro data, he values the flow of funds. He believes that the $7 trillion in money market funds is not just about interest. My point of view is similar to that of him. One is that the market does not have the opportunity to reverse. One is that the lack of liquidity caused by the lockout has not yet recovered. Once it recovers, it will inject vitality into the market. The second is that the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in half a month may not be impossible to cut interest rates, and then Trump's tariff is likely to be canceled. All three points may be the incentives for the market to rebound. Based on Max's article, he believes that once there is a rebound, the market will experience FOMO, which will significantly increase prices. Of course, he is referring to the stock market, and I have always believed that BTC and technology stocks are highly correlated. Currently, technology stocks dominate the stock market, so if technology stocks rise, Bitcoin should not be too bad. End, Max may not be right, and I may not be right either. Friends with different opinions should be treated as having some useless knowledge. Bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits