金色财经|Nov 20, 2025 18:31
[Analyst: Three Key Factors Support Year-End Rally for S&P 500 Index, Expected to Reach 7,000 Points]
According to a report by Golden Finance, Citadel Securities analyst Scott Rubner stated that the recent 'healthy' pullback of the S&P 500 Index has laid the groundwork for a strong rebound, with market positioning and seasonal trends likely to drive the year-end rally. In a report to clients, Rubner highlighted several bullish forces, including:
① Continued demand from retail traders;
② Institutional investors reducing their exposure to U.S. equities ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, giving them more room to rebuild positions now;
③ Strong performance from Nvidia Corporation, which may prompt traders to quickly close hedges and rebuild positions before the end of the year.
He expects the S&P 500 Index to push toward 7,000 points by year-end, representing a 5.4% increase from Wednesday's closing price. Rubner also noted that seasonal factors favor the stock market, with data dating back to 1928 showing that the S&P 500 Index typically rises by about 4% from now until the end of the year.
Rubner further pointed out a key group he is monitoring: systematic investors. These funds mechanically adjust their exposure based on price trends and volatility, and they have 'clearly entered a de-risking phase,' reducing their stock holdings during the recent weakness. According to Rubner, these mechanical outflows may remain heavy in the coming days before completely dissipating.
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