The non-farm payroll data for September just got released. To be honest, this data isn’t very useful since it reflects the period before the government shutdown. But because of the shutdown, the October non-farm payroll data might not even be released, making the September data the only labor market report the Fed will have before the December FOMC meeting. Why do I say this? Because aside from non-farm payrolls, there’s also ADP, Challenger, and initial jobless claims data, which can provide some guidance. But I think the September data isn’t very meaningful because there were a lot of layoffs at major companies in October and November, and those aren’t reflected in the September numbers. Plus, the labor losses caused by the shutdown aren’t included either. That said, the unemployment rate data is showing some changes. It already hit 4.4% in September, and it’s estimated that the October or November rate could exceed 4.5%. That’s the Fed’s neutral rate for 2025, essentially the warning level. A rising unemployment rate could push the Fed toward cutting interest rates. Of course, this also indicates potential risks for the U.S. economy, and wages are declining. None of this is good news, but it does support the case for rate cuts. Whether there will be a rate cut in December is still a 50/50 chance. Bitget VIP, lower fees, crazier perks.