Phyrex|Nov 19, 2025 23:55
Actually, whether it's a bear market or not, the VIX data makes it more obvious. VIX represents the level of market fear. Generally speaking, when the VIX stays above 30 for a long time, it indicates a bear market. When the fear index is below 18, it often reflects a relaxed investor sentiment, which can indicate a bull market. Currently, it's been staying between 18 and 30 for a while, which shows that investors are very nervous but not in full panic mode yet.
This period is very similar to January and February of this year. What comes next might be like April, where panic skyrocketed. Back then, it was due to Trump's tariff policies and the U.S.-China trade tensions. Then there was another major panic in mid-October, mainly caused by the government shutdown. However, after those two instances, there hasn’t been any sign of the VIX staying above 30 for a prolonged period.
It’s hard to predict what will happen in the future, but for now, at least the U.S. stock market doesn’t seem to be fully entering a bear market like in 2022.
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