Right now, all the decision-making weight is on the just-released/upcoming September jobs report. If the September data is 'decent' or shows 'moderate cooling': The Fed will use this as an excuse to stay on the sidelines in December, waiting for the data chain to normalize by early 2026. If the September data 'crashes' (e.g., unemployment rate spikes): This is the only condition that could trigger a rate cut in December. However, without supporting data from October/November, making a rate cut based solely on data from three months ago (September) would require immense political courage—a very high bar to clear.