I ran an analysis comparing historical bitcoin volatility, historical VIX spikes, and historical max bitcoin drawdowns. The data shows that as bitcoin’s volatility decreases over time, the size of its max drawdowns for the same VIX level also decreases. This reflects bitcoin becoming a more mature asset as adoption grows. VIX 25 → ~–75% BTC drawdown in 2018 VIX 25 → ~–55% in 2020 VIX 25 → ~–36% around 2025 VIX 25 → ~–30% by 2030 VIX 45 → ~–88% BTC drawdown in 2018 VIX 45 → ~–64% in 2020 VIX 45 → ~–43% around 2025 VIX 45 → ~–35% by 2030 VIX 60 → ~95% BTC drawdown in 2018 VIX 60 → ~71% in 2020 VIX 60 → ~48% around 2025 VIX 60 → ~39% by 2030 Interestingly, this rough model suggests a max drawdown of ~50% this year (~63,000 BTC) if the traditional financial system sees severe stress, such as a VIX near 60. The analysis anchors on bitcoin’s actual behavior in March 2020 and scales estimates by bitcoin’s declining volatility over time.(Joe Burnett, MSBA)