看不懂的SOL|Nov 19, 2025 13:19
Why did top trading giants Buffett, Soros, and Livermore end up so tragically?
Livermore's management style can only manage small capital pools.
The capacity of speculative trading is limited, and once the amount of funds is large, it will face the problem of having a price but no market and unable to ship quickly.
This is actually very similar to Xu Xiang, only slightly worse.
(Speculative trading can provide stable profits and freedom of wealth, but there is always a limit to the amount of funds available. However, most speculative traders cannot recognize this reality because they have not been exposed to the basic principles of finance and do not know what liquidity is.)
This is similar to real estate. Don't look at the glorious real estate of the past 20 years, it was essentially speculation. Now, when the market is declining, liquidity problems arise.
The way of thinking about speculative trading, or high-frequency short-term trading, is cash based. That is to say, completely ignoring the value of the stock itself and only considering short-term financial trends for trading. To shift from speculative trading to value investing, it requires not a small change, but a change in mindset.
Buffett's value investing approach happens to be a suitable management plan for listed companies, considering the underlying operations, profits, and risks of the company. At this point, you are thinking about the fundamentals of the company's business logic and so on.
Soros' approach is actually not suitable for large fund companies, but for financial wars between countries. That is to say, to use the comprehensive power of a country's politics, military, and central bank to launch a financial blow to a country. If a country's financial system is logically dead, then this bomb will definitely explode. After the explosion, the country's economy, finance, confidence, and talent will all be lost.
But this operation has a prerequisite that the other party follows the game rules. If the other party can enter an invincible state for 3 rounds while you are a "general", what kind of chess will they play? If you dare not lift the table, just give up.
But the above financial operations are all at the level of technique, far from reaching the level of 'Dao'. The true wisdom of finance is: "I exchange unlimited stocks for your limited funds, and if I sell one stock, I will add another for myself. Even if you are the Federal Reserve, you cannot buy all my stocks." That is to say, I short myself, but you have neither the power to bankrupt me nor the power to delist me.
I can mortgage my stocks for a loan and then purchase my own stocks. Now that I have stocks, I can use them as collateral to buy my own stocks. As a short seller, if you cannot afford to pay the margin, your position will be liquidated, and I cannot afford to repay the mortgage loan. Unfortunately, the bank and all taxpayers will be affected.
Directly putting opponents in opposition to the central bank and the entire population, the financial game becomes a vast ocean of people's war.
As long as you activate the national machinery, you can ignore the financial aspect, fundamentals, logical rules, causal relationships, and sieve any financial institution.
That's why Soros' rank is one level lower than Buffett's. Soros always feels that he can compete with the country, while Buffett suffered losses in his early years and knows that top financial operators are nothing in front of power.
Finally, the trading market never lacks opportunities or capital.
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