Orange Evening Interpretation 11.19 It turns out that yesterday's daytime slump was a prediction of the evening trend of the US stock market. Last night, the three major stock indexes of the US stock market collectively plunged, hitting a new low in nearly a month, The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq fell more than 1%, while the S&P fell for four consecutive days, marking the longest consecutive day of decline in nearly three months. On the other hand, Da Bing went against the trend and rebounded last night, reaching a peak above 9w3. This trend is clearly heading towards a double explosion of long and short positions Today during the day, the big pie began to fall again, with a support of 9w points in the second test. The buying performance was still good this time, and it bounced to around 9w2 when it reached 9w. However, the risk has not been relieved yet. Unless the big pie breaks through 9w4 again and confirms a rebound, there is a possibility that the big pie will fall below 9w again as long as there are any negative factors in terms of funds, policies or liquidity in the near future. The short-term market volatility should still be significant, and everyone should do a good job of risk management. The market is different now from at the beginning of the year. Even if the market rebounds, the expectations for reserve policies or interest rate cuts in the future are very good, so institutions entering the market have no burden. Now, with the surrender of the first batch of dat, many potential funds have surrendered. Everyone has withdrawn, the most typical example being the $1 billion ETH led by Li Lin and Xiao Feng Caiku, today there is news that this project has been shut down. The mainstream DATmnav has already fallen below 1, meaning that the company's market value is less than the value of reserve cryptocurrencies. BMNR is 0.86, SBET is 0.85, and the third ranked ETHM's mnav is even only 0.09, indicating that the stock market is no longer optimistic about the narrative of DAT. In the future, this type of DAT will sell coins crazily to repurchase stocks, which is also the biggest dilemma facing the currency market. Under bear market sentiment, DAT company's dumping risk. In contrast, Mstr's mnav is still very healthy, exceeding 1.5. It can only be said that Saylor is still bullish. No matter how the currency price goes, continuous financing to buy coins can stabilize investor confidence. This is the point. Tom Lee is also doing well. Even though he is currently losing billions, he continues to hoard ETH every week. The leading strategy will inevitably delay the biggest upward dividend in the cryptocurrency market. The main reason for the rebound of the market last night was that the probability of interest rate reduction in December returned to above 50%. Last night's small non farm adp employment data showed that the number of private employment in the United States in October decreased by 2500 every week, which was definitely positive for raising the probability of interest rate reduction. In addition, a series of data that had not been released during the government shutdown period, including the cftc weekly report, September non farm, ppi, etc., would be released. However, the approximate rate of data was in accordance with Trump's expectations, which was also favorable for interest rate reduction. So last night's polymarket's 25 probability of interest rate reduction in December rose to 52%, and CME's 25 probability of interest rate reduction rose to 49%; In addition, Trump said last night that the new chairman of the Federal Reserve has basically been determined, namely, Waller, Bowman, Walsh, Hassett and BlackRock senior executive Reid. The bad news is that Chuanzi said that there was some resistance to the dismissal of Powell, and it is said that Powell can choose not to leave the Federal Reserve and continue to be a director after his term of office expires, which also hinders the interest rate reduction plan behind. Last night, the US Senate approved a measure to mandate the disclosure of documents related to the Jeffrey Epstein case. At the same time, Trump's approval rating fell to a low point, causing dissatisfaction with the cost of living and the Epstein case. Last night, funds continued to flow out of the Big Dipper and Ethereum ETFs, with a total outflow of 370 million yuan from the Big Dipper and 74000 yuan from Ethereum. Overall, institutional funds are still leaving the market. If this outflow of funds cannot be stopped, the market may still continue to decline at any time. Of course, there was also a good thing about last night, which is that the suspected Baron's Whale bought 10000 Big Dippers during this downward trend. Insider generally does not move around, which may mean that there will be some good news in the future; In addition to the rumors circulating in the market that many market makers suffered heavy losses from 1011 and needed to jointly operate the market to earn profits from retail investors, there are also rumors of a second tier CEX thunderstorm, and there are also rumors that BG's reserves have problems. In short, the market trend during this period is very similar to that of Ftx or 3ac before the thunderstorm. Do not easily engage in leverage operations, at least wait until the real thunderstorm has landed before considering it. There are too many insider trades in this market that we cannot see, and many CEX or institutions may have already accumulated bad debts. As long as these are triggered, the entire system will suffer. If you play short-term, counterfeit, or hoard BTC, ETH in the current market All other operations must be prepared to be cannon fodder. In this unregulated environment, the game rules are that a small group of people harvest a large number of leeks, and then occasionally give a jujube. The leeks in turn are grateful, and only by identifying and holding mainstream coins can they be exempt from the rules.