Macro market analysis on November 19, 2023 Good afternoon, brothers. The market this month has been really cruel, with many people dropping out of the circle. Let's discuss the topics that everyone is concerned about. (1) Will BTC fall to 70000 this year? Unless the US stock index falls by more than 10%, BTC will only drop to 70000, and this possibility is less than 30%. However, the probability of it falling to 70000 next year is very high. Currently, some institutions and whales have a cost of 90000 to 100000 US dollars, which has now fallen below their cost line. It is visually strongly supported in the range of 86000 to 83000. El Salvador recently bought more than 1000 BTC, with an average cost of around 100000. In the past two weeks, a single entity has accumulated 2800 bitcoins (worth 264 million US dollars) through multiple addresses, with an average price of 101700 US dollars. (2) When will the market rise? It shouldn't be called a rise, let's look at a rebound first. After two major events tonight, there is a chance of a small rebound. At 3:00 a.m., the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting on whether interest rates would be cut in December. The meeting would reveal the direction at 5:00 a.m., and Nvidia's financial report announced that if its revenue and net profit were not as expected, it would indicate that AI had a foam, Nvidia might fall by 10%, and the US stock index would fall by 3%. BTC would certainly fall below 90000. If there was no big bad news for either, we would see an increase when we got up on Thursday morning. (3) Is there any good news behind it? The CLARITY bill, which benefits the cryptocurrency industry, may be reviewed in December and submitted for signature by Kawako. The Lummis bill for purchasing Bitcoin may be reviewed in the first half of next year. The probability of a rate cut in December is 55%. If there is a rate cut, it is a good thing, but whether it will rise or not is another matter. (4) Position recommendation When BTC falls below 86000, you can buy at the bottom of the spot market in batches, but remember to sell if it rebounds by more than 10%. It is not advisable to hold other currencies except for BTC spot. Analysis is only a friendly reference. Adults should take responsibility for their own decisions and invest with risks. Please invest with spare money and think independently.