Haotian | CryptoInsight
Haotian | CryptoInsight|Nov 18, 2025 09:48
After chatting with some builders, I unexpectedly found that they did not have a pessimistic bear market coming, but hoped that the 'deep bear' could last longer. Why? I tried to understand their psychology: 1) From the "pseudo innovation" craze of inscriptions in 2023, to the BTC layer2 narrative of East West VC not taking sides, to the AI Agent MEME asset issuance narrative sparked by Solana, to the series of artificial internal bull markets sparked by BN, the entire bull market has been divided into short waves of attention nodes: lively but short and then scattered with chicken feathers. It can be said that the "real bull" has never been in the future, or it can be said that the "fake bull" has never left, but the once familiar "super cows" such as DeFi Summer and NFT breakout, which can drive innovation on the market and increase off the market, have become unattainable; 2) The most despairing thing for builders is that when the voice promoting MEME Super Cycle dominates, MEME culture has evolved into a "narrative black hole", crazily devouring the entire market's attention to "technological innovation". Imagine when PumpFun generates tens of thousands of Tugou MEME coins every day, and a MEME project can easily reach a market value of 100M or even 2B, everyone becomes accustomed to the thrill of zero sum game PVP and has no patience to understand what a decentralized Sequencer or Intent Execution Network is? What is ZK Coprocessor? This has caused many long-term builders to completely lose their "presence"; 3) When it comes to more critical situations, due to the short exit time window with abundant liquidity, the projects of Steady Build are delayed due to established plans such as Roadmap routes and Tokenomics design. Some VC accumulation projects or self built projects within the exchange ecosystem designed specifically for storytelling will try their best to absorb the liquidity that originally belonged to "value projects". By the time the real narrative project was built and finished, the market had already dried up liquidity, and TGE had to break through. It had no choice but to break the can and crash the investors' market making manipulation team's mouse warehouse, bearing all the blame and exiting in the most undignified way. It should be noted that without favorable timing and location with abundant liquidity, the probability of winning a market share and achieving justice is one in a million; 4) The key is that true technological innovation requires a long period of time to validate and implement PMF, but the already changing market environment is fundamentally unfavorable for innovation to occur. A very practical problem is that it takes at least 2-3 years, or even cross cycles, for a project to truly establish brand barriers from technological breakthroughs to product polishing and ecological implementation. But in the new environment, with only a 3-month window of time, everyone is competing to brush TVL, gain popularity, and compete for TGE. Who has the patience to watch projects slowly verify PMF? So helplessly, the market has fallen into an absurd cycle: true innovation takes time, but the market does not give time; Those who adhere to long termism are eliminated, while those who take shortcuts can actually cash out and leave. The above. I finally understand that what they hope for is never a powerless' deep bear ', but to completely eliminate those' noise cows' that hinder true innovation.
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