Phyrex|Nov 17, 2025 22:00
Before 1am, the trends of the US stock market and BTC were relatively stable. The US stock market also rebounded on Monday, with the Nasdaq and S&P rising by nearly 0.5% at one point. However, since 1am, the US stock market has experienced a decline, driving Bitcoin down as well. The good news is that the consistency between the US stock market and BTC is still high, but the bad news is that there is still no clear negative information about this decline. If I have to look for it, I do see that the yield of short-term US bonds continues to rise.
This represents that investors' expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December are decreasing, and there are no obvious signs of bearish sentiment. Of course, a decline without bearish sentiment actually indicates that investors' emotions have been affected. The US stock market showed signs of rebound at the close of trading, and it is unknown whether the futures market will continue to rebound at the opening on Tuesday.
Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, firstly, the price of BTC has filled the gap of CME. In the short term, BTC no longer has a gap. The next obvious gap is around $22000, and it will be in 2023. I think it is highly likely that this gap will not be filled. I don't know when it will bottom out, but I still remain optimistic about the future trend. Of course, I may be wrong. It is precisely because I remain optimistic that I am constantly buying at the bottom.
The $92500 order has already been executed, and there is still some loose position at $90000. I haven't figured out the next position after buying this part, but I will definitely buy more and more as the price of gold falls. However, the yield of long-term US bonds is decreasing, and the US dollar index is rising, indicating that investors' sentiment is still very pessimistic and they are in an emergency safe haven trend under liquidity shortage.
Speaking of people, one should be concerned that the Federal Reserve's failure to cut interest rates may increase the probability of a US economic recession.
There's nothing else to say. When I wake up, I will focus on looking at the data. After all, there are no new developments in the macro aspect at the moment. We can check if the data has entered a dangerous period. However, at least from the perspective of chip structure, it is still relatively stable, and a large number of loss making investors have not shown obvious panic.
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