Both bullish and bearish views on Bitcoin require logical evidence Even if you see 90000, 80000, 70000, or even 40000, it's no problem What's more reliable is what's important? Just one mouth is unreliable I always believe that external forces are the only factor determining the market trend Today, let's chat casually. I think the next direction for Da Bing is. This article may inspire you, but my level is limited, so everyone will read it, haha. In the era of single currency, due to issues with volume and liquidity, Bitcoin can freely fluctuate widely even without external forces. It's different now, the structure has undergone significant changes. Every phase change in direction requires the assistance of external forces As we all know, macroeconomic interest rate cuts, expansion, and contraction have always been the strongest external forces. Below, I will refer to them as major external forces. The general cycle of interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion corresponds to a bull market, while the cycle of interest rate cuts and balance sheet contraction often corresponds to a bear market. So the question arises, such as how to grasp the direction of each stage in the bull market cycle. In the case of constant large external forces, every occurrence of small external forces will lead to a choice of short-term direction. For example, the interest rate cut window period, tariff war, major hacker coin theft, Binance 10.11 incident, government shutdown, and the outflow of long-term whale holdings on the chain is greater than the inflow, all belong to small external forces. When many small external forces gather at the same time and the gathered force becomes stronger, the probability of short-term downward direction will be high, otherwise it will gradually increase. In fact, through history, we can find the answer. Last August, the Bank of Japan struck a landmine that brought down the global financial market, and Ukraine launched its first large-scale attack on Russia during World War II In addition, August is the interest rate cut window period for the Federal Reserve, which means there is no interest rate meeting. August and September entered a period of adjustment due to too many negative external forces. Similarly, the pullback from March to April 2025 was due to Trump's tariff war, as well as the escalation of conflicts in India, Pakistan, and the Middle East, leaving a window for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in April. Both of the above incidents were caused by macro sudden bearish sentiment, geopolitical conflicts, sustained economic weakness, and small external forces such as interest rate cut window periods, resulting in a periodic downward trend in the market. Have you noticed that November, which is also this month, is still a window period for interest rate cuts. What are the negative factors for October and November? I won't go into too much detail, everyone has seen them. But what I want to say is that under strong external force driving upwards, these downward potholes will be quickly repaired. At this point, you can refer to the K-line of the large cycle, and I believe that the assistance at the K-line level is extremely important, as it is the most direct reflection of the amount of funds. On December 1st of this year, the balance sheet will stop shrinking, and next year's Q1 will start expanding the balance sheet. In addition, there will be interest rate cuts in the first half of next year, indicating that there are gradually more small external forces among the large external forces that affect the short-term (phased) upward trend of the market. So, I think it's too early to talk about the so-called bear market now, too early. I am particularly firm that if there are macro external forces as mentioned above, there will definitely be a major market trend in the first half of next year, and currently it is only the longer lasting small account 519. As for where to adjust? Because the expectation of positive news is getting closer and the negative news has already landed so many times, it should be the limit to be able to rely on external forces (that is, stop shrinking the balance sheet and the positive news landing) and finally hit more than 80000 yuan. When it comes to Bitcoin reaching 754000 people, I'll just assume that you're doing it for traffic.