CrediBULL Crypto|Nov 15, 2025 08:36
This perfectly demonstrates why I pay little attention to moving average, MACD, or other lagging indicator crosses/closes, etc.
The "death cross" gets its name because it's supposed to be a "bearish" trigger. It occurs when the 50DMA crosses below the 200DMA, and is "supposed to" signal the start of a bear market/downtrend- hence the name "death cross".
Despite this, the last 3 death crosses on Bitcoin actually marked our local bottoms- all within 10 days or less of the cross and within 10% or less from our bottom.
In every *actual* bear market, we eventually, at some point, get a bearish cross of the 50 and 200 DMA's as prices trend down- this is natural/to be expected when price is bleeding for a long enough period of time- but these crosses only take TIME into consideration. They do not account for price and market structure- and so a bearish MA cross with no bearish shift in market structure is essentially just a false signal.
The reality is that just because every bear market experiences a "death cross" doesn't mean that every "death cross" signals an impending bear market. Unfortunately this false equivalency is often perpetuated by analysts who point to bullish or bearish crosses of lagging, time based indicators, as arguments for bullish or bearish price action in the future.
It just doesn't work that way.
The same can be said for bullish or bearish closes above/below certain time based MA's. Without taking key price levels and market structure shifts into consideration, it's all just unnecessary (and often misleading) noise.(CrediBULL Crypto)
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