
TraderS | 缺德道人|11月 15, 2025 00:36
Let’s do a quick recap of what happened in the overnight markets. The U.S. stock market recovered pretty well, especially with NVIDIA stabilizing and rebounding, which gave the market a decent amount of confidence. As long as the AI bubble doesn’t burst in the short term, the broader fundamentals should remain intact.
At 4 AM, Logan unsurprisingly expressed opposition to the Fed cutting rates in December. Previously, she had opposed rate cuts in October, citing concerns about high inflation trending upward and the lengthy timeline required to reach the Fed’s 2% target. “When I look ahead to the December meeting, I find it hard to support another rate cut unless we have compelling evidence that inflation is indeed declining faster than I expect, or we see the labor market cooling not just gradually.”
One key reason for the Fed’s internal opposition to rate cuts is the impact of tariffs on inflation. Coincidentally, Trump is preparing to cut tariffs on beef, tomatoes, coffee, and bananas, which could help lower food costs and contribute to controlling inflation.
Looking at the charts, $BTC’s daily line has held steady at the 0.618 retracement level between 74,000 and 126,000. If it stabilizes here and forms a bottom, it would make sense. But the key question is: where’s the support coming from?
According to the latest news, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the September non-farm payroll data next Thursday, which was originally scheduled for October 3. Since this data was collected before the U.S. government shutdown, it’s considered fairly reliable and will be the most important indicator for the Fed to reference ahead of the December rate-setting meeting. From a political standpoint, this data is likely the best and biggest “step down” the Trump camp can offer the Fed for a rate cut. Now it’s up to the Fed to see how they respond.