AB Kuai.Dong|11月 14, 2025 02:48
Yesterday's concerns were spot on. Overnight, the probability of no rate cuts according to the traditional CME has reached 49.3%. Meanwhile, the emerging prediction platform Polymarket shows it at 47%.
In other words, half of the big money now believes that the market in November and December won't look good because the expected rate cut trend in September, October, and December is disappearing.
But the good news is, the other half of the money is still betting on continued rate cuts.
So what you're seeing is that while the market is dropping, it's more of a rotation rather than a sharp plunge. Both sides think the other is out of their mind—this is the most divided the market has been.
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