DC大于C|11月 13, 2025 21:56
Just as I feared? The thing I was most worried about happened. The Fed poured cold water on us, and the December rate cut expectations have plummeted!!!
Previously, CME's rate cut expectations were over 65%, but now, as of this post, it's barely under 50%.
Even though the government shutdown has ended and things are reopening, it will still take a few days for fiscal liquidity to recover. For example, even payroll processing takes time.
And right at this moment, when liquidity is tight, the rate cut expectations are gone... The U.S. stock market is down about 2%, and BTC is nearing the $97,500 support level.
Also, why did the market rally during the first week of the shutdown in early October? Because back then, the market thought, "Oh, it's just a shutdown, it'll definitely end soon, same old story." The market also believed it wouldn't drag on for long, plus at that time, there was strong expectation for a December rate cut.
But now, this has become the longest shutdown in history. The market is panicking, and with rate cut expectations being crushed, of course, everyone is scared.
That said, there’s still time before the December FOMC meeting, so a reversal isn’t impossible.
It’s just that with fiscal liquidity not yet restored these few days, plus the low liquidity over the weekend, it’s going to be tough. This week, we can only hope for some good news on rate cut expectations on Friday, the last trading day, to stabilize market sentiment a bit.
Fingers crossed.
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