Let’s take this chance to systematically talk about this issue. First of all, the so-called “positive news” of ending the shutdown corresponds to the “negative impact” during the shutdown. The most direct effects are twofold: 1. Liquidity gets drained. 2. Consumer confidence declines. To put it bluntly, during these 43 days, the U.S. government neither paid salaries, settled contracts, nor made purchases, so all fiscal spending was completely paused. After the shutdown ends, all the unpaid salaries, overdue contracts, and backlogged purchases will be released at once—that’s the essence of the “positive news.” For example, this round of the shutdown affected about 1.4 million people, with around 670,000 of them directly furloughed without pay. Once the shutdown ends, these people will get their money, and apart from paying off credit cards, they’ll likely stimulate consumption. Additionally, a large number of suppliers will also receive their overdue payments, which will then be spent through wages, bonuses, and other means. As for why the market wasn’t pessimistic when the government first shut down on October 1st and even showed unusual strength, the reason is simple: the market didn’t take the shutdown seriously at the beginning. Similar shutdowns have happened too often in U.S. history. During Trump’s first term, there was even a record-breaking 35-day shutdown. At first, everyone thought this wouldn’t last long. Early on, the market believed the shutdown would reduce labor data, forcing the Federal Reserve to yield and increase the frequency of rate cuts. And indeed, as we’ve seen, the Fed cut rates again in October. While there’s still a lot of debate about December, it’s not entirely out of the question. Plus, during this month of the shutdown, U.S.-China trade relations temporarily improved, which also stimulated and benefited risk markets. So, in the end, the shutdown caused a tightening of liquidity, and the end of the shutdown is equivalent to replenishing that liquidity. The October rally was mainly driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions. Bitget VIP—lower fees, bigger perks!