The US government has ended an unprecedented 43 day long shutdown, during which a large amount of economic data was not released on schedule, and macroeconomic analysis relied on forecasts. The current CPI data has also not been released, which significantly increases the importance and uncertainty of the next data, as the data department has more "operational space". And the core node of all of this is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in December, which was previously believed by the market to have a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December. However, with the increasing uncertainty in macro data, as well as the rising uncertainty in geopolitics and the AI boom, the pricing of December interest rate futures is based on a 50% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. Based on recent statements from Federal Reserve officials, it is highly likely that the Fed will maintain a hawkish attitude until the end of this year, in order to achieve greater policy flexibility and maintain risk and expectation management space. If the above macro situation exceeds expectations, it will have a significant impact on the Bitcoin market, so it is worth paying attention to. At present, I believe that Bitcoin is facing a situation of "waiting for signals". 100K USD is a sensitive price, and any event could become a tipping point for the market. In terms of options, open interest (OI) and trading volume have continued to rise, with a significant increase in the trading volume of virtual options, indicating a growing divergence among market participants regarding the future. The main term IV has seen a slight increase. The bulk trading is also more active, Skew is moving towards balance, and the short-term surface is more scattered, all of which represent an increase in market divergence towards recent trends. So a reasonable 'reason' becomes the trigger point for market changes, which is more in line with demand.