Nick from the New Federal Reserve News Agency analyzes the prospect of the Fed's December interest rate cut: three major differences and two paths. Nick believes that there is currently a disagreement among Fed officials on which threat is greater - sustained inflation or a weak labor market, and even the resumption of official economic data release may not be able to bridge these differences. In this context, the voices of both hawks and doves within the Federal Reserve are increasingly rising, while the centrist stance is becoming increasingly wavering. Doves are concerned about a weak labor market, but they also lack new evidence to support interest rate cuts; Hawks take the opportunity to advocate for a pause in interest rate cuts - they believe consumer spending is stable and are concerned that businesses are preparing to pass on tariff related costs to consumers. There are serious disagreements within the Federal Reserve on three issues: 1) Is the cost increase caused by tariffs really just a one-time occurrence? 2) Does weak recruitment reflect sluggish demand or reduced supply? 3) Are tariffs still restrictive? Nick pointed out that it is still difficult to predict whether Federal Reserve officials will cut interest rates again at their next meeting on December 9-10, and new data may end this debate. Still, as we have been saying before, the trend of inflation determines the pace of subsequent interest rate cuts. Of course, the biggest risk now is that the entire October will be suspended, causing the October data statistics work of the Bureau of Labor Statistics to come to a complete halt. It is very likely that even if the government returns to normal, the labor and inflation data for October will not be released. Without data guidance, Powell would be more conservative. Nick also mentioned two potential paths: 1) Some officials believe that the meetings in December and January are interchangeable and essentially not much different, which makes it somewhat artificial to have to complete another interest rate cut in December (in other words, there is no need to be fixated on cutting interest rates next month); 2) Another possibility is to combine the December rate cut with guidance on setting a higher threshold for further rate cuts. NCIK's article is from the perspective of the chairman of the Federal Reserve, revealing Powell's three major tasks - balancing the internal (dove and hawk), balancing the market (he does not want the market to price too much in advance and cut interest rates), and balancing the White House (must appear "independent and cautious", rather than "catering to Trump"). My personal understanding is that Powell used Nick to signal to the market that there is a serious internal division and a rate cut is not a certainty. The possibility of a rate cut in December has been redefined as a "tossup" (50-50). The essence is still expectation management, to prevent excessive pricing and interest rate cuts in the market! This article is sponsored by the meme trading tool http://(xxyy. io) | Fast trading, versatile features, and can be used to monitor on chain wallets @useXXYYio