The rebound from the past two days was merely driven by expectations of the government shutdown ending, without any substantial improvement in liquidity. Real liquidity improvement will only happen once the government fully resumes normal operations and the Treasury starts spending money. For now, the situation remains tight. At the same time, the four-year cycle effect is kicking in. While macro conditions haven’t shown significant improvement, the signals of the cycle ending are becoming stronger. Taking profits and retreating seems like the natural choice. As previously discussed in https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/1953370327012262397?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A about the framework for major turnover: it’s a state where sellers are highly motivated, and buyers are relatively weak. As mentioned a couple of days ago, for the market to improve in the future, two prerequisites need to be met: 1) Liquidity must genuinely improve after the government resumes normal operations—TGA trending down, bank reserves steadily increasing, and SOFR stabilizing without spiking. 2) Inflation data for October and November must not exceed expectations. The inflation trend will be a key factor in determining whether rate cuts can continue in December. If both prerequisites are met, it should boost market sentiment and expectations. This post is sponsored by meme trading tool http://(xxyy.io) ｜ Fast trading, versatile features, monitor on-chain wallets with @useXXYYio