2025.11.10 Macro Market Analysis Good afternoon, brothers! A new week kicks off with a rebound and upward trend. Congrats to those who bought the dip and made some small gains. So, where’s the market heading next? Based on the Fed’s policies, there are 3 scenarios: (1) Optimistic Scenario (30% probability): After the government shutdown ends, TGA funds are released in December. Coupled with the Fed cutting rates by another 25 basis points in December, BTC could break $125K before January and push toward the $130K high. (2) Neutral Scenario (60% probability): The Fed pauses rate cuts in December, liquidity is released moderately, and Bitcoin fluctuates between $100K and $110K, waiting for clearer policy direction in Q1 2026. In this case, the whales and big players will keep accumulating and building positions, waiting for Powell to step down in May next year and for Trump’s people to take over and cut rates. (3) Pessimistic Scenario (10% probability): Inflation rebounds beyond expectations, the labor market doesn’t weaken, and BTC could drop below $100K, fluctuating between $90K and $100K. Overall, the outlook leans optimistic. In the long run, you can’t fight the trend. Powell’s term is nearing its end, and Trump’s team is likely to take over the Fed chair by mid-next year. There could be 3 rate cuts next year. Plus, the U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve is still advancing steadily. Overall, it’s optimistic, but watch out for black swans along the way. Long-term survival is key—spot holdings are the way to go. Futures trading is a dead end. Just buy BTC. If you’re not on the train yet, start with a 30% position. This analysis is for reference only. Adults must take responsibility for their own decisions. Investments carry risks—invest only with spare money and think independently!