Marking the three peaks of the last bull market The top chart shows the BTC price; the bottom chart displays BTC: Realized Cap HODL Waves [<90 days]. BTC: Realized Cap HODL Waves is an on-chain metric that visualizes the distribution of Bitcoin's realized capitalization (Realized Capitalization refers to the total value calculated based on the price at which each coin last moved) according to the holding duration of the coins. The <90 days category represents the combined proportion of the realized capitalization of all coins held for less than 90 days. This metric mainly reflects the following aspects: 1. The proportion of short-term holders and market activity: It represents the "hot money" ratio of those who recently entered the market or are actively trading. These coins are often held by short-term speculators, new investors, or traders, reflecting short-term market liquidity, trading activity, and speculative sentiment. If this proportion rises, it usually indicates a large influx of new funds or increased short-term trading; conversely, if it falls, it suggests coins are "aging," with more holders shifting to long-term holding. 2. Potential sell or buy pressure signals: A high proportion of <90 days holdings is often associated with market tops, as short-term holders are more likely to sell during price fluctuations, increasing sell pressure. A low proportion may indicate market bottoms, where coins are being accumulated by long-term holders, reducing circulating supply and potentially supporting future price increases. 3. Market cycle indications: In Bitcoin's historical cycles, this metric is often used to gauge bull and bear transitions. During bull markets, the <90 days proportion typically rises from a low point (<20%) to a high point (>50%), reflecting new funds and FOMO sentiment. In bear markets, it declines, indicating speculators exiting and long-term holders dominating the market.