At the beginning of 2022, especially after the peak of the bull market at the end of 2021, many people in the cryptocurrency industry (including institutional investors, analysts, and KOLs) believe that this round will not enter a traditional bear market, but rather a "supercycle" where prices will continue to rise or at least not experience an 80% -90% plunge. Their core logic is' this time is different ', and the following are the most mainstream reasons at that time (these views were widely spread on platforms such as Twitter, Reddit, CoinDesk, Moneyweb, etc. in 2021-2022): 1 Institutions adopt explosive growth and demand never dries up. In 2021, companies such as MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Square hoarded Bitcoin on a large scale, and institutional funds continued to flow in through Grayscale and futures ETFs. People believe that institutions are "smart money" and they do not panic and sell like retail investors, but hold on for the long term. This will provide permanent buying support and prevent the formation of a bear market. Typical statement: Ryan Allis (HeartRithm partner) wrote in January 2022 that 'we may be in a Bitcoin super cycle, not a bear cycle'. 2. The dominance rate of Bitcoin has declined, and other chains/ecosystems are flourishing. During the bull market in 2017, BTC accounted for 70% of the entire market, but in 2021, it dropped to 40%. The rise of L1 chains such as Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche, etc, DeFi、NFT、GameFi、 The metaverse allows funds to rotate between different narratives. Logic: Money will not all leave the market, it will only flow from one hotspot to another, and the entire cryptocurrency market will 'circulate internally' to avoid systemic collapse. 3. DeFi high returns replace traditional wealth management with DeFi annualized 12% -18%, far exceeding banks' 0% -3%. People believe that in the era of low interest rates, global funds will continue to pour into cryptocurrency to earn 'real returns'. Typical viewpoint: In January 2022, Revix analyst Brett Hope Robertson publicly supported the super cycle theory, stating that "DeFi opens up new opportunities for revenue hunters". 4. The macro environment is super friendly: inflation+unlimited printing of money. The US inflation rate in 2021 is 7% (a 40 year high), while the inflation rate of Bitcoin is only 1.4%, which is regarded as "digital gold+anti inflation asset". The Federal Reserve's unlimited QE in 2020-2021 has led to a global liquidity crisis, with people believing that 'money is so abundant that it has nowhere else to go and can only flow into Bitcoin'. 5. Evidence of broken historical cycles: Previous patterns: a significant increase in the second year (2013, 2017) after halving, followed by a bear market in the third year (2014, 2018). After rising to 69000 in 2021, it only saw a 30% -40% correction, and many people believe that it has "exited the four-year cycle and entered a sustainable bull market". Dan Held, Willy Woo and other big V's repeatedly promoted "supercycle" in 2021. Reality: The super cycle theory led to a collective collapse of Terra/Luna in May 2022, followed by the collapse of Three Arrows Capital, the suspension of withdrawals by Celsius and BlockFi, and the collapse of FTX. A series of dominoes caused the market to evaporate $2 trillion. Bitcoin fell from 69000 to 15000 (-78%), Ethereum fell from 4800 to 880 (-82%), completely entering the crypto winter of 2022. Even Su Zhu, the founder of Three Arrows Capital, who was the first to call supercycle, admitted on Twitter in May 2022, "Unfortunately, my supercycle price theory was wrong Lesson: At the peak of each bull market, there are always people shouting 'this round is different', but the cycle of greed → leverage → black swan → panic selling has never been broken. The 'Super Cycle Dream' of 2022 ultimately turned into the most tragic bear market, making countless people deeply realize that cycles always exist, but their length and depth will change due to new variables. Summary from Grok.