December rate cut? Rate cut expectations 1: The absence of U.S. non-farm payroll data increases policy uncertainty, cooling December rate cut expectations (probability 55%). U.S. stocks face significant correction risks, and panic sentiment could drag down the crypto market. 2: The U.S. government shutdown caused non-farm payroll data for September and October to be missing (the first time since 2013), weakening the Fed's ability to assess the labor market. 3: Decision-making dilemma: Powell stated that missing data might lead to a pause in rate cuts, and unemployment rate data could be permanently lost (retrospective surveys are unreliable). 4: Limitations of alternative data: ADP shows October layoffs increased by 153,000 (highest since 2008), but its credibility is insufficient, and the market lacks consensus on labor market deterioration! 5: $BTC is currently at a 12-hour MACD decision point, with key support at the $100,000 level. Short-term rebound faces resistance at $105,000, fluctuating within a $5,000 range. The longer the consolidation, the stronger the support effect. For short-term trades, focus on the $100,500–$99,500 range. 6: $ETH has key support at the $3,000 level. Short-term rebound resistance is at $3,500. Over the past two days, it has been fluctuating between $3,200–$3,450. For intraday short-term trades without a long-term outlook, consider the $3,318–$3,268 range for entries.