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Sister Mu is cowardly! Bitcoin target drops from 1.5 million to 1.2 million, stablecoin becomes biggest winner? Analysis framework: Stakeholder analysis+SWOT analysis Brothers, as soon as we finished talking about the prediction of Mu Jie, the "female stock god" in the cryptocurrency industry, she suddenly changed her face! Just when Bitcoin fell below $100000 and the market was in mourning, ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood dropped a bombshell - she lowered the price forecast for Bitcoin in 2030 from $1.5 million to $1.2 million, cutting 300000 directly! This is Wood Sister! The super long who shouted '500000 dollars' when Bitcoin was still at 10000 dollars in 2020! The believer who firmly believes that 'Bitcoin is digital gold'! Now, has she suddenly become timid? What's even more heart wrenching is that the reason she gave left all Bitcoin believers hooked: "Stablecoins are replacing Bitcoin, especially in the payment scene Are stablecoins such as USDT and USDC really taking away Bitcoin's job? How long can the narrative of digital gold last? In today's video, we will use the toughest data and sharpest analysis to break it down for you! Part 1- What did Sister Mu say? 】 1、 Forecast significantly lowered: from 1.5 million to 1.2 million Let's first take a look at the latest Bitcoin price model of Mu Mu Jie (2030): Previous forecast (October 2024): Bull market scenario: $1.5 million Baseline scenario: 680000 US dollars Bear market scenario: $260000 Latest forecast (November 6, 2025): Bull market scenario: $1.2 million (down 300000, a 20% decrease) Baseline scenario: $600000 (down 80000, a decrease of 12%) Bear market scenario: $500000 (up 240000, doubling) Did you see it? Not only has the bull market target been significantly lowered, but even the bear market bottom has risen from 260000 to 500000! What does this mean? Mu Mu Jie's expectations for Bitcoin's volatility have decreased, and her confidence in the upward potential has weakened. 2、 Deadly reason: Stablecoins have taken away the payment scene of Bitcoin In an interview with CNBC, Mu Jie admitted: Stablecoins are taking over the role that I originally thought Bitcoin would play, especially in emerging markets and cross-border payments. The growth rate of stablecoins has far exceeded my expectations, which has forced me to reassess the adoption path of Bitcoin I thought everyone would use Bitcoin to buy things and transfer money, but everyone ended up using USDT instead! She also emphasized the penetration of stablecoins in developing countries: In Argentina, Türkiye, Nigeria and other high inflation countries, the stable currency (especially USDT) has become the de facto "US dollar substitute" The size of the stablecoin market has exceeded 180 billion US dollars by 2025, an increase of over 80% compared to the beginning of 2024 The daily trading volume of stablecoins has exceeded $120 billion, which is five times the trading volume on the Bitcoin chain Data does not deceive people. Stablecoins are indeed doing what Bitcoin once wanted to do: becoming a global payment tool. Why did stablecoins steal Bitcoin's territory? 】 1、 The three core requirements of payment scenarios To understand this' payment war ', we need to first understand what kind of currency is suitable as a payment tool: price stability Stablecoins: 1 USDT=1 USD, with almost zero volatility Bitcoin: 100000 yesterday, 99000 today, and possibly 110000 tomorrow - who dares to use it to buy coffee? Transaction speed and cost Stablecoins (Tron Chain USDT): 3-second confirmation, with a transaction fee of less than $1 Bitcoin: 10-60 minute confirmation, peak transaction fee can reach $50 Regulatory compliance Stablecoins: Circle (USDC issuer) holds a US currency service license, compliant and transparent Bitcoin: Decentralization, anonymity, regulatory authorities remain vigilant The conclusion is obvious: in terms of payment, stablecoins outperform Bitcoin! 2、 Data speaks for itself: the 'lightning war' of stablecoins Let's take a look at some shocking data: Explosive growth in market size: In 2020, the total market value of stablecoins was only $5 billion Early 2024: Exceeding $100 billion November 2025: Reached 181.5 billion US dollars Growth rate: skyrocketing 36 times in 5 years! Trading volume crushes Bitcoin: Daily trading volume of stablecoins: $120-150 billion Bitcoin daily trading volume: 20-30 billion US dollars Stablecoins are 5 times larger than Bitcoin! Regional penetration: According to Chainalysis' 2025 Global Cryptocurrency Adoption Index, among the top 20 emerging market countries: Proportion of stablecoin transactions: 68% Bitcoin transactions account for 22% Other tokens: 10% Stablecoins have become the de facto 'digital dollar' for developing countries! 3、 The US government's' blatant scheme ' What's even more frightening is that the rise of stablecoins is not accidental, but a strategic push by the US government! The three major actions of the Trump administration: Legislative Promotion: The GENIUS Act, passed in 2025, provides a clear regulatory framework for stablecoins and clears compliance barriers. Political endorsement: The Ministry of Finance supports the public statement of Finance Minister Besant: "Stablecoins are an extension of the US dollar hegemony in the digital age, and we fully support them Strategic objective: To counter the trend of global de dollarization (with countries such as Russia, China, and Brazil reducing their holdings of US bonds), stablecoins have become a new tool for the United States to export its influence in the US dollar. Wood Sister's judgment is correct: stablecoins are not competitors to Bitcoin, but rather "biological sons" supported by the US government! How can Bitcoin believers refute Part 3? 】 Of course, Sister Mu's viewpoint has also sparked fierce rebuttal. Bitcoin fundamentalists have jumped out to counterattack: Payment has never been the core value of Bitcoin Bitcoin evangelist Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy CEO) immediately refuted on Twitter: Payment? That's the narrative of 2010! The true value of Bitcoin lies in value storage, in becoming the ultimate weapon against fiat inflation! Stablecoins are essentially still dollars, and they cannot change the nature of fiat over issuance His logic is: Stablecoins=Digital Dollars=Still Controlled by the Federal Reserve=Inflatable Bitcoin=Digital Gold=Constant Total Quantity of 21 Million Coins=Anti Inflation From this perspective, stablecoins and Bitcoin are not even on the same battlefield! Historical data supports the narrative of 'value storage' Take a look at the purchasing power comparison over the past 5 years (see the figure below): Conclusion: As a value storage tool, Bitcoin crushes stablecoins! Part 4- Using SWOT Framework to See Through the Current Situation of Bitcoin Let's calm down and use the classic SWOT analysis framework to comprehensively evaluate the situation of Bitcoin: Strengths Scarcity is irreplaceable: 21 million pieces limit, never issued again Decentralization: not controlled by any government or institution The strongest global consensus: holding 150 million addresses, ranking first in brand awareness Institutional continuous buying: ETF, listed companies, hedge fund continuous allocation Halving cycle support: The fourth halving will be completed in April 2024, and historically, bull markets will occur 12-18 months after the halving Weaknesses Loss of payment scenarios: slow transactions, high transaction fees, and being taken away by stablecoins in the market Excessive volatility: drastic price fluctuations make ordinary people hesitant to use it for daily payments Energy consumption controversy: PoW mining criticized by environmentalists Poor user experience: unfriendly to beginners, high threshold for wallet and private key management Opportunities Global debt crisis intensifies: countries' debt/GDP ratio reaches a new high, and French currency credit overdraft Geopolitical uncertainty: US government shutdown, Middle East conflict, rising demand for safe haven Intergenerational wealth transfer: Generation Z and millennials are more accepting of digital assets Technological upgrade: Layer 2 solutions such as Lightning Network improve payment experience Regulatory clarity gradually improves: ETF approval, legislation in various countries, long-term benefits Threats Stablecoins divert payment market: Wood Sister is right, this cake has been taken away Regulatory uncertainty: Although the trend is improving, policies in various countries may still fluctuate Quantum computing threat: In the next 10-15 years, quantum computers may crack Bitcoin encryption Competitive coins divert funds: Ethereum, Solana and other public chains are also competing for investors' attention Macro liquidity tightening: If the Federal Reserve continues to be hawkish, risk assets will come under pressure Comprehensive analysis: Bitcoin is completing its' identity transformation ' From the SWOT analysis, it can be seen that Bitcoin is transitioning from a "payment currency" to a "value store," which is a passive adjustment but may also be the correct strategic contraction. Just like gold - you won't use gold bars to buy coffee, but you will see it as a ballast of wealth. Part 5- Is Sister Mu right or wrong this time? 】 Returning to the core question: Is it a rational adjustment or a collapse of confidence for Sister Mu to lower her forecast? 1、 The part she's right about It is an undeniable fact that the payment scene has indeed been taken away by stablecoins. Anyone who denies this is deceiving themselves. 1.5 million is an overly optimistic assumption that the prediction is based on the premise of "Bitcoin becoming a global reserve currency", but now it seems unlikely. 2、 The part where she said wrong (or was too pessimistic) Underestimating the power of the 'anti inflation' narrative, the global debt crisis is far from over. The US treasury bond is US $34 trillion, Japan's debt/GDP exceeds 260%, and Europe is not optimistic. Overissuance of fiat currency is a long-term trend, and the scarcity of Bitcoin will become increasingly valuable. Neglecting technological advancements such as Lightning Network and RGB protocol, Layer 2 technologies are enabling Bitcoin to regain its payment capabilities. Although its current application is limited, technological evolution cannot be ignored. Institutional adoption has just begun, and currently only 50% of global hedge funds hold cryptocurrencies, with an average allocation ratio of only 7%. If this proportion increases to 20% in the next 5 years, it will bring trillions of dollars in incremental funds. Part 6- What should ordinary investors do? 】 Finally, a few practical suggestions are given to everyone: 1、 Don't be led by the nose by 'predictions' Whether it's 1.5 million or 1.2 million, these are all model deductions based on a bunch of assumptions. The actual price may be much higher or much lower. Remember: the market is always smarter than anyone else. 2、 Understand the positioning changes of Bitcoin If you bought it because 'Bitcoin is going to replace the US dollar', you may be disappointed. But if you bought it because 'Bitcoin is digital gold', then this logic still holds, even stronger. Adjust expectations, don't adjust beliefs (if you have them). 3、 Fund allocation Since both have their own strengths, why not pair them up? Stablecoins: used for daily payments, short-term financial management, and volatility avoidance Bitcoin: Used for long-term holding, inflation hedging, and wealth inheritance Don't be either black or white, adults should choose everything!